Streamflow Response to Climate and Land-Use Changes in a Tropical Island Basin

The effects of climate change and land use/cover (LUCC) on streamflow as demonstrated by hydrological models are pressing issues the frontiers global environmental research. Nandu River Basin (NRB) largest three river basins tropical Hainan Island, China, is subjected to an analysis response land-use change. It based Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) coupled with signals extracted from model data in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios modeled Cellular Automata (CA)—Markov. results summarized follows: (1) Climate contributed more than NRB, contributions 97.57% 2.43%, respectively. Precipitation temperature were most important variables, contributing 92.66% 4.91% (2) In island basin 1990 2015, LUCC regulated processes NRB affected increasing evapotranspiration decreasing surface runoff subsurface flow, which resulted streamflow. (3) Under near-term period (2021–2040), annual decreased during reference (1995–2014); particularly, it (−6.16%) SSP126 path. These present a case study for understanding cycle provide theoretical basis water resources management regional sustainable development islands.